The NFL power rankings for Week 5 are out, and the list is full of notable risers and fallers as teams have made big moves, both up and down. With four weeks in the books, some franchises are showing their true potential while others are struggling to find consistency. Let’s take a look at the biggest movers in this week’s rankings.
The power rankings for Week 5 are derived from an adapted version of the Glicko-2 rating system, originally developed for ranking players in chess. This system evaluates teams based on their performance relative to the strength of their opponents, rather than just using win-loss records. Each team is assigned a rating that accounts for not only their recent results but also the uncertainty in their performance. As a result, teams that beat stronger opponents see a larger boost in their rankings, while losses to weaker teams cause a bigger drop.
Key elements of the Glicko-2 system include:
- Rating: A numerical value representing a team's estimated skill level.
- Rating Deviation (RD): A measure of uncertainty in a team’s rating, with higher RD values indicating more uncertainty.
- Volatility: A factor that adjusts how much a team’s rating changes based on unexpected results.
In the context of NFL power rankings, this system rewards teams like the Broncos and Raiders for outperforming expectations, leading to their rise in the rankings. Conversely, teams like the Browns or Seahawks see a sharper decline after underperforming, especially if they lose to lower-ranked teams. By integrating strength of schedule and uncertainty, the Glicko-2 adaptation provides a dynamic and fair method of ranking teams week by week.
Biggest Risers
Denver Broncos (+7, Rank #12) The Denver Broncos edged out the New York Jets 10-9 in a defensive battle, relying on a stout defense that held the Jets to just three field goals. Denver's offense struggled, but a second-half touchdown proved decisive. The Jets couldn’t find the end zone, despite their defense keeping them in the game. The Broncos' ability to win despite offensive challenges highlights their defensive strength, moving them to a 2-2 record.
Las Vegas Raiders (+5, Rank #20) Another significant mover, the Raiders moved up five spots to #20. At 2-2 with 19.5 points per game, they seem to have gained momentum after a tough start. This rise is promising, but the Raiders still have work to do to stay competitive in the strong AFC West.
Atlanta Falcons (+5, Rank #19) Like the Raiders, the Falcons also jumped five spots this week to land at #19. Atlanta's defense has tightened up, and they've been able to pull out key wins. With 18.8 points per game, the offense isn’t highly productive, but their defense is doing enough to keep them competitive.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4, Rank #9) Tampa Bay also made a strong push, rising four spots to #9 after being ranked 13th last week. Their 3-1 record reflects solid performances on both sides of the ball, and they’re now looking like one of the stronger teams in the NFC. At 24.3 points per game, the Buccaneers' offense is humming, which could help them stay in the top 10.
Chicago Bears (+3, Rank #18) The Bears improved their standing by three spots, moving from 21st to 18th. Although their 2-2 record isn’t overly impressive, they are finding ways to stay in games, and their 19.3 points per game show a slight improvement in offensive output.
Biggest Fallers
Cleveland Browns (-6, Rank #23) On the downside, the Browns dropped six spots, falling from 17th to 23rd in the rankings. Their 1-3 record reflects a team that has struggled to find its identity, especially offensively, where they are only managing 16.5 points per game. Cleveland needs to make adjustments fast if they want to avoid falling further.
Seattle Seahawks (-3, Rank #7) The Seahawks, despite their 3-1 record, slipped three spots from #4 to #7. They’ve struggled in recent performances, which is evident in their drop in the rankings. While they’re still one of the top teams in the NFC, Seattle’s inconsistency is starting to catch up with them.
Green Bay Packers (-3, Rank #13) The Packers are another team that fell three spots, going from 10th to 13th. At 2-2, they have shown flashes of strong play, but their inconsistency is concerning. With 26 points per game, they’ve proven capable of scoring, but their defense hasn’t been able to hold opponents in check.
Buffalo Bills (-2, Rank #4) The Bills dropped two spots, moving from #2 to #4. While a 3-1 record is still solid, Buffalo’s drop is more about the impressive play of other teams like Detroit and Baltimore. With 30.5 points per game, Buffalo is still one of the most dangerous offensive teams, so this drop might be temporary.
New Orleans Saints (-2, Rank #17) The Saints also slipped two spots, dropping from 15th to 17th. At 2-2, New Orleans has struggled with consistency, and despite scoring 31.8 points per game, defensive lapses have cost them wins. They’ll need to shore things up on defense to climb back into the top half of the rankings.
Teams to Watch
Detroit Lions (+3, Rank #2) The Lions are making a serious push for dominance, moving up three spots to claim the #2 ranking. At 3-1 with 26 points per game, Detroit is looking like one of the most balanced teams in the league. If they continue at this pace, they could challenge Kansas City for the top spot.
Baltimore Ravens (+3, Rank #3) Another team on the rise is Baltimore, climbing three spots to #3. Despite a 2-2 record, the Ravens are trending upwards thanks to a solid offense averaging 26.5 points per game. They’ll need to build on this momentum to solidify their position as one of the top AFC teams.
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