Hey everyone, I know these rankings are coming in a bit late, but better late than never, right? Just a quick heads-up: the rankings for this week don’t include the Thursday Night Football game between the Bills and the Dolphins. So, if you're wondering why that's missing, there's your answer!
Now, onto the good stuff. If you're new here, you might be curious how these rankings are calculated. I’m using a system based on the Glicko2 rating system, which is commonly used in competitive games like chess. The Glicko2 system offers a bit more nuance compared to standard Elo ratings, as it accounts for both a team’s rating and how confident we are about that rating. So, teams that are more volatile will have a wider range of possible outcomes week to week.
For each team, I assigned an initial rating which was derived from the previous season and, as results come in each week, those ratings get adjusted based on their performance relative to expectations. The beauty of Glicko2 is that it’s dynamic. Teams that consistently perform above their expected level will see a quicker rise, while those that underperform will drop off faster. Plus, it helps adjust for outliers, so a single fluke game won’t skew the rankings too much.
I'll keep refining the ratings as the season progresses, and we'll see how the system evolves with more data. Hope you enjoy the rankings, and feel free to share your thoughts!
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